In one of the most eventful months in American political history, President Joe Biden officially withdrew from the 2024 presidential race on July 21. The President was under increasing pressure from Democratic lawmakers to withdraw from November’s election after his poor debate performance on June 27 caused public consternation over his age and ability to serve for another four years. Biden’s decision to drop out of the race came just one month before Democratic Party will officially nominate its candidate for President. No incumbent President has dropped out of the race for a second term since 1968, and no major party candidate has ever dropped out so late in the race.
Current Vice President Kamala Harris has quickly emerged as the clear frontrunner to assume the Democratic nomination following Biden’s decision to withdraw. Harris has secured major endorsements from the most important figures in the Democratic Party including Biden, former Presidents Obama and Bill Clinton, and legislative leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jefferies. A survey of Democratic convention delegates also found that a clear majority have already declared support for Harris, bolstering her chances against any late challengers. Delegate voting is currently scheduled for August 1-7 and it is almost certain that Harris will be formally declared the Democratic nominee at the party’s national convention on August 19.
Harris has kicked off her campaign with rallies in multiple states, with early polling and fundraising numbers indicating that her candidacy has reinvigorated voter interest in the Democratic Party’s platform. Harris has made ongoing social issues a key focus of her early campaign and not much is known about the specifics of her economic positions. Harris has aligned herself with the Biden administration’s trade and regulatory policies since becoming Vice President and she is not expected to announce major changes to her campaign’s economic platform. However, Harris is known to be a major supporter of environmental issues and the Vice President could place additional emphasis on climate policies should she secure the Presidency.
Harris has long been a supporter of pro-climate policies like the Green New Deal and she previously proposed a plan to spend $10 trillion to reduce greenhouse gas emissions during her 2019 presidential campaign run. She has also been known to be skeptical of free trade agreements that do not guarantee environmental protections and voted against both the Obama-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and Trump’s United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement during her time as a U.S. Senator on grounds that the deals did not provide sufficient protections for the environment.
Harris is unlikely to make sweeping climate proposals a key part of her campaign in order to appeal to moderate voters and to blunt Republican messaging against her. Nevertheless, her emphasis on climate issues has led to speculation that a future Harris administration could use trade controls to encourage trade in clean energy-related products as opposed to carbon-intensive products.
Trump survives assassination attempt and attends Republican National Convention
Biden’s withdrawal from the Presidential race occurred only eight days after an assassination attempt against former President Trump at a rally on July 13. The attack saw the former President suffer an ear injury from a shooting that also left one attendee dead and two others injured. The assassination attempt appears to have further bolstered the former President’s standing within the Republican Party, and he was officially nominated as the party’s candidate for President for the third consecutive term during the Republican National Convention on July 15-19.
The convention also saw Trump appoint current Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his Vice-Presidential candidate. Vance’s selection as Trump’s running mate is seen as a strategic choice by Trump given the electoral importance of manufacturing-heavy Midwestern swing states. Additionally, Vance is significantly younger than Trump at 39 and could help alleviate remaining concerns about Trump’s age.
Vance is known for his opposition to free trade agreements restrictive and his selection as Trump’s running mate signals the former President’s intention to continue doubling down on his protectionist trade proposals. Vance has also emerged as a critic of the renewable energy industry throughout his time in the Senate and unsuccessfully attempted to introduce measures to eliminate subsidies for electric vehicles in favor of conventional vehicle subsidies. Vance’s support for the traditional energy industry is also reflective of Trump’s own promises to bolster American fossil fuel production and reverse many of the environmental regulations introduced by the Biden administration.
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