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Canada Acts Swiftly to End Rail Shutdown Amid North American Labor Unrest

Workers at Canadian National Railway (CN) began returning to work on Friday, the Teamsters union announced, after the Canadian government forced an end to the unprecedented rail stoppage by imposing binding arbitration. The union said the work stoppage at Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) continues pending an order from the Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB). Earlier on Thursday, Canada’s top two railroads, Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City locked out over 9,000 unionized workers, triggering a simultaneous rail stoppage.

Shipment disruptions had already begun in anticipation of Canadian rail workers strike

Canadian rail shipments had already been affected in anticipation of the strike. Both CN and CPKC had begun a phased shutdown of their networks in preparation for the strike and had already halted the acceptance of hazardous goods cargo. Further, on August 15, both companies have imposed ingate restrictions on certain freight, including reefers destined for Canada and hazmat containers transiting between the U.S. and Canada. The following day, intermodal embargoes from the U.S. to Canada were restricted, and on August 19, Maersk announced the suspension of all Canada-bound cargo that requires movement via rail. Further, Maersk also imposed restrictions on gross cargo weights to ensure that accepted cargo can be moved by truck. Hapag-Lloyd notified customers that it would embargo commodity shipments originating in Canada and U.S. commodity shipments destined for Canada from August 22. The carrier also suspended all carload traffic destined for Canadian interchange.

Despite measures by carriers and Canadian officials to avoid congestion at ports, strike action would have likely led to impacts at key facilities like the Port of Vancouver. Canadian ports rely on rail transport for onward shipments of commodities such as grains, fertilizers, salt, iron ore, potash, and coal as well as imported consumer and automotive products. While some intermodal shipments can transit onward by truck, commodity cargo would have been likely to remain stranded at ports and decrease storage capacity. The Port of Vancouver, for example, relies on rail transit for 66% of inbound cargo to reach final destinations in Canada and the U.S. Midwest. As port facilities become more inundated with cargo while rail dwell times gradually increase, the resulting port congestion and backlogs could take months to clear. To avoid this, more carriers could decide to divert cargo away from Canadian ports to U.S. west coast ports like Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle. The number of vessel arrivals at container terminals in the Port of Vancouver has dropped from 73 to 61 for the second week of August, the second lowest number of arrivals throughout 2024.

Canadian exports are also at risk of being severely impacted by the strike, as the country relies heavily on rail for its exports of crude petroleum, automobiles, petroleum gas, gold, potassic fertilizers, raw aluminum, and rapeseed oil. The Canadian Potash Exporters (Canpotex) is expecting shipments of potash to be hit hard by the strike action as it has no viable alternative shipping method that can transport the same volume of cargo as rail. The group estimates that 10,000 trucks would be required to transport one weeks’ worth of potash shipments from the country. The Chemical Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) estimates that as much as CAD 76 million (USD 55.7 million) in chemical product shipments alone could be affected each day of the strike. Nationwide economic losses due to impacts to both imports and exports are estimated to exceed CAD 1 billion (USD 773 million) for each day of the strike.

Looming port workers strike prompts cargo diversions to U.S. west coast

The uncertainty of the looming port workers strike at U.S. east and gulf coast ports is also leading carriers to divert cargo from these ports to U.S. west coast facilities. Carriers like Maersk have warned that even a one-day strike action could lead to backlogs of four weeks at some east and gulf coast ports. In the absence of a full-scale strike, port workers may also choose to implement bans on overtime work and work to rule orders as was the case in collective bargaining agreements between the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) at U.S. west coast ports. Though to a lesser degree, these actions are also likely to lead to heightened congestion and backlogs at west coast port facilities, especially when happening concurrently with diversions from Canadian ports. Though wait times and average daily anchorage counts are down at west coast ports compared to the three-month trends, more container ships are likely to divert to these ports in the days and weeks to come if labor unrest in Canada and the U.S. remain unresolved.

Further, vessel counts for waiting vessels at U.S. west coast ports are showing a steady increase, likely highlighting that shippers and carriers are shifting more vessels in preparation for impending slowdowns at east and gulf coast ports as the September 30 deadline nears closer without a labor agreement in sight. This could also be indicative of early diversions from the Port of Vancouver in advance of the August 22 strike commencement. Since the middle of July, the number of vessels arriving in Vancouver has fallen by 22%.

 

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