Political instability has afflicted Haiti for several years with a marked worsening since the assassination of President Moïse in 2021. On March 3, the violence escalated to new heights when a gang-orchestrated prison break led to the escape of over 4,000 inmates at two prisons, one located in Port-au-Prince, and another located northeast of the capital in Croix des Bouquets.
The mass prison escape prompted a 72-hour nationwide state of emergency declaration that did little to prevent criminal gangs from quickly seizing control of most of the island. Prime Minister Ariel Henry was not in the country at the time of the incident and has since been unable to return due to prompt disruptions to the country’s logistics infrastructure.
Following gang demands, Prime Minister Henry eventually agreed to cede the Presidency and offered his resignation. Though the violence has quieted down since then, criminal gangs continue to have a stronghold on most of the country and the movement of goods to Haitian citizens remains disrupted. The nationwide state of emergency, inclusive of a nightly curfew, has been extended to April 3. However, this is mostly formality as law enforcement and other authorities still have little ability to patrol the country effectively.
Haiti’s gangs seize control of logistics points, threaten supply of goods
Despite the President’s agreed resignation, gangs continue to disrupt logistics operations in Haiti. On March 6, gangs attempted to seize control of Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) in Port-au-Prince, forcing the suspension of airport operations until further notice. Further, an attack on the main terminal warehouse of the Port international de Port-au-Prince prompted Caribbean Port Services to cease operations indefinitely on March 7.
This facility is the country’s main shipping container terminal, handling most maritime freight into the capital and onward to the rest of the island. Criminal gangs now control 80% of Port-au-Prince and all major roads and highways leading into and out of the capital city. Even if the port and airport could resume operations, connecting transit corridors remain impassable.
Four million people in Haiti already face acute food insecurity. Without continuity of logistics, the national supply of food and other goods is expected to quickly deplete, threatening to exacerbate an already dire situation. Haiti relies on imports for 50% of its food supply and suffers one of the worst food inflation rates of anywhere in the world. At the seaport in Port-au-Price, there are an estimated 260 containers with humanitarian aid and food supplies under gang control.
In January amid a previous uptick in violence, gangs blocked the passage of cargo trucks between Port-au-Prince and the south of the country, prompting a 25% increase in food prices. Since this bout of violence began, nationwide food prices have already increased 10% and are expected to surge much higher given the scale and severity of the situation this time around.
Haiti is also experiencing a fuel shortage, as blocked roads and ports have hindered fuel distributors’ abilities to supply the country’s gas stations. This further reduces the ability of logistics and transportation operations and has led to a significant price increase for fuel. North of the capital, in Cap-Haïtien, fuel prices rose from $5.66 (€5.21) per gallon to $17 (€15.64) per gallon in the first week of the crisis. Worse, it has given rise to a lucrative black market for fuel with even higher prices as drivers facing empty gas stations are forced to seek supply elsewhere. The black market, also controlled by the criminal gang network, further strengthens the control that non-state actors currently have on Haiti.
Impacts to agriculture and textile trade between Haiti and Dominican Republic likely
The UN estimates that around 15,000 additional people have been displaced within Haiti by the latest surge in violence, bringing the total number to around 360,000 displaced persons. This has resulted in an uptick in refugees seeking assistance from or relocation to the neighbouring Dominican Republic. Authorities in the Dominican Republic have tightened what were already stringent security measures along the shared border with Haiti since the start of the year.
The border is now completely closed to avoid any spillover effects of the violence into the Dominican Republic. These measures are expected to disrupt cross-border trade, as has been the case during previous closures between the two countries.
In September 2023, Dominican farmers incurred losses on agricultural exports to Haiti totalling $21 million (€19.34 million). Haiti is a crucial market for Dominican wheat flour, roots, tubers, edible oils, and rice, much of which crosses into the Trou-du-Nord free zone in northeast Haiti. Located only 30 kilometres from the border with Dominican Republic, this is the first and only agricultural free trade zone established in Haiti.
In addition, the Dominican Republic exports $137 million (€126 million) worth of cotton to Haiti annually as inputs for textile manufacturing, most of which is first sourced from the United States. Because of the free trade textile zones located on the border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the two countries have intricately connected cotton supply chains.
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