A verdict in the ongoing New York criminal trial against former President Trump is expected soon as final arguments have been scheduled for May 28. Meanwhile, in Trump vs Biden foreign policy, mounting political pressure on Biden threatens to halt arms shipments to Israel as human rights concerns increase over the country’s military operation in Gaza. The U.S. foreign policy towards Taiwan is unlikely to change as both Biden and Trump have reaffirmed their support for the island following the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te.
Trump foreign policy secondary to trail verdict
The ongoing criminal trial against former President Donald Trump at the New York State Supreme Court has continued to dominate domestic news headlines in the U.S. as both the prosecution and defense rested their respective cases on May 20 and 21. Final arguments for the case are scheduled to take place on May 28 with a verdict expected as early as this week depending on the length of jury deliberations. If found guilty by the jury, Trump is expected to be sentenced anytime between 30-60 days after the trial ends.
It is unlikely that Trump will face any jail time even if a guilty verdict is reached as first-time offenders of non-violent crimes in the state of New York commonly receive fines or a probation sentence in lieu of a prison term. Additionally, it is widely expected that Trump will ask the court to delay any sentence that is given while he appeals the result of the case. A guilty verdict could be damaging to Trump as a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll in April revealed that as many as 25% of registered Republicans and 60% of independent voters claim they would not vote for the former president if he became a convicted felon. Conversely, an acquittal or mistrial would likely be beneficial for Trump as the former president is expected to use the decision to further the argument that he has been unfairly targeted by his political opponents.
Biden foreign policy faces criticism over Israel
The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict continues to pose a unique political challenge for President Biden, who has had to balance his party’s traditional support for Israel with rising dissatisfaction over growing civilian casualties in Gaza. Increased political pressure from key voting groups and a series of protests on U.S. college campuses against the country’s foreign policy with Israel have also forced Biden to moderate his support for Israel’s ongoing military campaign, with Biden announcing on May 8 that the U.S. would be forced to pause all military aid to Israel if the country moved forward with a planned offensive in the Gazan town of Rafah.
The Biden administration’s current stance of moderated support for Israel has been challenged by Trump, who has accused his successor of “abandoning” Israel and has indicated that he would support an Israeli offensive in Rafah.
As President, Trump took several measures in support of the Israeli government, including controversially moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem in 2017. Trump has been critical of Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, however, and has also encouraged Israel to conclude its war in Gaza in a recent interview. Nevertheless, Republican support for Israel is currently stronger compared to the Democratic party, with several former Trump administration foreign policy officials meeting with Netanyahu on May 20, and Elise Stefanik, a Republican leader in the House of Representatives, visiting Israel on May 19 to address Israel’s parliament.
Ultimately, both Biden and Trump have offered relatively strong support for Israel and appear unlikely to make major changes towards U.S. policy in the region. Republican support for maintaining strong military support of Israel will likely be elevated should Trump win the election, and full arms shipments are likely to resume. On the other hand, Biden’s administration remains more sympathetic to humanitarian criticisms of Israel’s actions in Gaza, and a Biden re-election would likely moderate U.S. policy towards Israel to a greater degree than a Trump victory would.
Neither Trump nor Biden likely to change support for Taiwan
U.S. foreign policy towards Taiwan is also unlikely to change regardless of the results of November’s election as both Biden and Trump are expected to maintain U.S. ties with the island without calling for its independence. Biden has previously deviated from the U.S.’s official policy of “strategic ambiguity” by stating in public appearances that the United States would defend Taiwan from attacks. However, his administration has repeatedly clarified that the U.S. would maintain its policy of strategic ambiguity despite the President’s comments and Biden recently clarified that he does not support Taiwanese independence following the island’s elections in January.
U.S. foreign policy towards Taiwan is unlikely to shift in the event President Trump secures a second term in office as Trump has also confirmed his support for strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan in a recent interview despite also making outward-facing shows of support for the island. Both candidates have also engaged in billions of dollars’ worth of arms sales and military aid during their respective presidencies, with the Biden Administration recently approving an April bill with bipartisan support that includes over $2 billion in foreign military financing for Taiwan and other U.S. allies in the region.
Competition between the U.S. and China has also increased after Biden announced plans to introduce a series new of tariffs against China that target over $18 billion worth of key manufacturing and consumer imports including electric vehicles, semiconductors, batteries, solar cells, and critical minerals. The tariff measures have been criticized by Trump, who argued that the restrictions should be expanded to include other goods including conventional automobiles and whose own proposed flat tariff of 60% would apply to all imports from China. Nevertheless, the new tariffs indicate that the Biden administration intends to compete with Trump on U.S.-China issues and encourage domestic development of key industries to decrease economic dependence on China. The strategic focus of the tariffs on specific goods further reflects the desire of the administration to avoid exacerbating inflation in an election year by declining to tax more elastic consumer goods.
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