Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump appear locked in a statistical tie ahead of the United States Presidential election on November 5 with recent national polls showing a 1% difference in support for the two candidates. The candidates have spent the last several weeks crisscrossing key battleground states with reputable polls finding voter support within the margin of error for the key states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
The mid-western state of Pennsylvania is widely seen as a bellwether for the election and a must-win state for Trump as only 6 out of Trump’s 21 possible paths to victory will still be available if he loses the state. Harris’ odds of winning without Pennsylvania are better than Trump’s but the vice president’s easiest path to victory lies in retaining the mid-western states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – all of which went to Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
The winner of the election could be determined as soon as the early morning of November 6 if the race turns out to be more one-sided than expected. However, a particularly close battle could see the official results delayed from anywhere between a couple of days to several weeks as votes are verified and re-counted according to state laws. The increased use of mail-in voting in this election could further delay results in battleground states.
Trump is unlikely to concede the election should there be a close race that is ultimately called in favor of Harris and the former president could challenge the election results in a similar manner following the results of the 2020 presidential election. The threat of election-related political violence in the U.S. has increased markedly over the last several months following the attempted assassination on Trump and it is unclear how the former president will respond should legal attempts fail to overturn an unfavorable election.
Trump tariffs would disrupt U.S. supply chains
American companies with overseas supply chains could have to navigate a global baseline import tariff of 10-20% on all goods should Trump secure a second term. For example, aerospace manufacturer Airbus recently announced the company is including the impact of a 10% baseline tariff in its company planning and anticipates higher production costs that will in turn be passed to airline customers. The liquified natural gas (LNG) market could also be affected since Trump’s proposed China tariffs would discourage Chinese purchases of American LNG exports, hurting U.S.-based natural gas industries.
Companies with upstream suppliers in China could also find themselves forced to seek out new suppliers to circumvent a proposed 60% tariff on all imports from the country, with U.S. trade partners potentially able to negotiate for lower tariff rates. However, it is unlikely that Trump will completely abandon his tariff plans as the proposals have formed the cornerstone of his economic pitch to voters.
A Trump victory could lead to increased congestion at U.S. ports towards the end of the year as companies may look to build increased stocks of critical overseas components ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. Harris has refrained from announcing trade proposals of her own but is expected to maintain President Joe Biden’s approach of implementing smaller, targeted tariffs, especially aimed at China’s manufacturing and semiconductor industries.
Candidates vow to boost domestic manufacturing
Both Trump and Harris have emphasized industrial policy to attract manufacturing workers in key swing states. Trump’s initiatives include tax incentives, accelerated environmental reviews, and the opening of federal land for foreign companies that build manufacturing plants in the U.S. He also proposed tax write-offs for new heavy machinery investments, and supports reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for companies producing goods within the U.S.
However, Trump’s skepticism of environmental regulation and preference for traditional oil and gas could negatively impact investment for the clean energy and renewables industry and the former President has promised to rescind any remaining investment funds from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act that are intended to support green energy projects.
On the other hand, Harris has released a plan to provide $100 billion in tax credits for companies establishing new manufacturing facilities in key industries. While a complete list of sectors has not yet been disclosed, it will likely cover renewables, iron and steel, aerospace, biotechnology, automotive, and semiconductor manufacturing. Harris has also made her support of the CHIPS and Science Act central to the last week of her campaign, criticizing Trump for threatening new jobs in battleground states such as Arizona. Lastly, Harris has also proposed building a critical mineral stockpile that could provide a consistent and well-priced market for domestic mining companies. Affected commodities could include nickel, cobalt, and rare earth minerals.
Harris and Trump present alternative foreign policy visions
If elected, Trump’s economic criticisms of China are likely to extend into the foreign policy realm. He has proposed various policies to target China’s economy, including revoking its Most Favored Nation trade status, banning Chinese companies from purchasing American farmland, and expanding the Department of Commerce’s Entity List. Harris has not detailed her broader China policy but is expected to continue Biden’s approach of targeted restrictions on specific goods and sectors. Harris has also criticized China’s human rights record and previously co-sponsored two major bills implementing trade restrictions in response to Chinese human rights abuses.
Trump has remained ambiguous on whether he would militarily defend Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion. In July, Trump said that Taiwan should pay for its own defense, and more recently, Trump heavily criticized the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for reducing the competitiveness of the American chip industry and suggested he may implement tariffs on Taiwanese chips. However, these proposals could be watered down by other Republican lawmakers and aides, who have strongly supported Taiwan in the past.
Harris has not commented recently on her approach to Taiwan, but during her tenure as Vice President affirmed her support for the status quo in cross-strait relations, indicating that she opposed unilateral changes to current conditions and that the United States should continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense.
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues, Harris has expressed her strong support for Ukraine and is likely to continue military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. However, Harris could face increased resistance to military aid if Republicans who are reluctant to provide unlimited aid to Ukraine win control of one or both houses of Congress. On the other hand, Trump has indicated that his priority would be ending the war as soon as possible. He has also expressed openness to lifting sanctions on Russia as a potential bargaining tool in a peace deal.
Increased conflict in the Middle East will also present a challenge to the election winner. Although Harris has expressed more empathy towards casualties the Gaza Strip, she is unlikely to depart from Biden’s strong military support for Israel. If elected, Trump could be more open to long-term Israeli control over parts of Gaza as well as continued military operations in Lebanon. The outcome of the election is also expected to impact Israel’s own actions, with Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly waiting to know the results of the election before deciding the country’s next steps in negotiations with Hamas.
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