On June 4, Biden signed an executive order that will deny asylum to all migrants who cross the U.S.-Mexico border without authorization. The order is aimed at reducing the ongoing migrant crisis at the southern border and raises the threshold for requesting asylum to a claim of credible fear. The measure was put into effect immediately and will remain in place until 14 days after the seven-day average of illegal crossings drops below 1,500. In April, 4,300 encounters per day with undocumented migrants between ports of entry were recorded, indicating the measure is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future while border crossings remain high.
U.S.-Mexico border policy remains top of mind for voters
The policy announcement follows a chaotic year at the U.S.-Mexico border which saw unprecedented numbers of migrants seeking asylum, often impacting border communities with little capacity to accommodate the thousands of people that arrived each day. The rising number of migrants in late 2023 caused disruptions to truck and railway logistics along the border as several major road crossings were closed due to insufficient processing capacity while a series of railway disruptions affected trains from Class I rail companies.
Migration numbers are currently down from their peak at the end of 2023 and monthly crossing numbers have remained slightly below 200,000 people for the first half of 2024. The falling numbers are due in part to increased immigration enforcement by Mexico at its borders with Guatemala and the United States. The new executive order from President Biden is expected to bring down migrant crossings even further in the short term, with the CBP already reporting a 25% decrease in crossing encounters along the southern border since the policy came into effect. However, it is unclear if Biden’s new policy will successfully reduce migrant numbers in the long-run, and several advocacy organizations in the U.S. have already launched legal challenges against the government to reverse the order on humanitarian grounds.
Biden’s tougher border policy has been interpreted as an effort to compete with Trump’s hard line on immigration. Several recent polls have seen voters rank immigration as the top concern facing the country ahead of other issues including the economy and inflation. Biden has kept several of Trump’s migration policies in place, including expelling asylum-seekers under the Title 42 program during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Trump employed further policies to deter migration during his first term, including his “Remain in Mexico” policy under which migrants were forced to remain in Mexico while awaiting their asylum hearings. If re-elected, Trump is expected to pursue a stricter immigration policy compared to Biden. This could involve resuming the construction of additional border walls along the U.S. Mexico border and the imposition of additional deportation measures.
Trump found guilty on all counts
Donald Trump became the first U.S. president to be found guilty of a crime after the jury in his New York criminal trial found the former president guilty on all 34 charges related to falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments made ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Sentencing for the verdict will be handled by the case’s presiding judge and has been scheduled for July 11. Trump is not expected to face jail time as first-time offenders of white-collar crimes in New York are rarely incarcerated. Even if a prison sentence is imposed, Trump has already indicated that he plans to appeal the guilty verdict – meaning that any sentence from the case will likely be stayed until after the November 5 election as the case winds its way through the higher courts.
Following the end of his trial, Trump returned to campaigning and made public appearances in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. On the other hand, President Joe Biden has largely stayed away from the official campaign trail this month. On June 27, both Biden and Trump will seek to pitch their policy platforms to voters at the first scheduled presidential debate, a televised event that will likely command a wide viewership across the U.S.
Claudia Sheinbaum elected President of Mexico
U.S.-Mexico relations are expected to remain stable following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum as Mexico’s next President on June 2. Sheinbaum will assume office in October and is largely expected to continue the policies of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who forged relatively successful relationships with both Trump and Biden during his six-year term.
In addition to the border crisis, Sheinbaum is also expected to engage with the next U.S. president on the renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July 2026. Although no country has indicated plans to oppose renewing the agreement, several sticking points have arisen in recent years, and both Biden and Trump could seek to use the review process to renegotiate parts of the agreement.
For example, both candidates have raised concerns that Chinese automotive manufacturers such as BYD could take advantage of the USMCA to flood the U.S. vehicle market with lower-cost vehicles made in Mexico. Other issues include Mexico’s proposal to restrict imports of genetically modified corn from the United States from 2025, a policy that Sheinbaum has indicated she will continue to support.
The Biden administration is reportedly preparing to escalate a USMCA dispute in the energy sector, following allegations that American energy companies have been unfairly denied legal approvals and permits in Mexico. The USMCA review process could also face several hurdles under Trump as the former president initially proposed the agreement during his first presidential term with the aim of reducing the United States’ trade imbalance with Mexico. However, this deficit has only grown from $64 billion in 2016 to $153 billion in 2023, raising concerns that Trump could push to renegotiate the agreement in 2026.
Additionally, Trump has also made tackling security and health issues related to the U.S.-Mexico drug trade a concern for his re-election campaign. Trump’s proposals to send U.S. military forces into Mexico to combat cartels has not been well received by the Mexican government, with outgoing president López Obrador expressing strong opposition to the idea of U.S. military presence on Mexican soil.
Everstream clients are receiving more detailed insights and recommendations about this risk.
Don’t miss key supply chain risk updates! Subscribe now to get supply chain news, weather updates, forecasts, and other insights.